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基于天然气产业的系统结构特征尺度,运用非线性规划方法,建立了天然气产业协调性标度及优化方法,并以中国天然气产业发展的协调性标度为例,提出了天然气产业协调性标度及优化方案,并对天然气产业协调性标度的合理性、敏感性进行对比分析,最后提出天然气产业协调性标度优化方法的建议。结果发现:2014年左右天然气产业协调性水平为良、天然气产业变异系数为差、月高峰系数为优、城市应急系数为差、县城应急系数为良;优化后的天然气产业协调性标度与中等标度区间指标标度值相比,在大的标度区间下天然气产业协调性标度值的敏感性增加0.15;与小的标度区间比较,天然气产业协调性各指标标度值的敏感性增加更多,天然气产业协调性标度值的敏感性增加0.198,表明该方案起到了较好的预期度量效果,在大的标度区间下,天然气产业协调性标度最敏感。建议将基于天然气产业协调性标度优化方案作为未来中国天然气产业发展规划的协调性影响评价的参考,该方案不仅有助于实现准确度量天然气产业协调性的目标,而且对于敏感反映天然气产业协调性变化等受天然气产业利用规划和开发、建设活动影响的测度指标都具有重要的现实意义。
Based on the characteristic scale of natural gas industry structure and using nonlinear programming method, the coordination scale and optimization method of natural gas industry are established. Taking the coordination scale of natural gas industry in China as an example, the coordination scale of natural gas industry is proposed. Optimize the scheme, compare and analyze the rationality and sensitivity of the coordination scale of natural gas industry, and finally put forward the suggestion of the natural gas industry coordination scale optimization method. The results show that the coordination degree of natural gas industry is good around the year of 2014, the variation coefficient of natural gas industry is poor, the monthly peak coefficient is superior, the urban emergency response coefficient is poor, and the emergency coefficient of county is good. The optimized natural gas industry coordination scale and medium Compared with the scale index value of scale interval, the sensitivity of scale value of natural gas industry coordination scale increases by 0.15 in the large scale interval. Compared with the small scale interval, the sensitivity of natural gas industry coordination scale index value Adding more, the sensitivity of scale value of gas industry coordination increases by 0.198, which shows that the proposed scheme has a better expected measurement effect. Under the large scale range, the coordination scale of natural gas industry is the most sensitive. It is suggested that the optimization scheme based on the coordination scale of natural gas industry should be taken as a reference for the coordinated evaluation of the future development of China’s natural gas industry. This scheme not only helps to achieve the goal of accurately measuring the coordination of the natural gas industry, but also reflects the coordination of natural gas industry Changes and other indicators subject to the planning and development of gas industry utilization and the impact of construction activities all have important practical significance.