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本文在分析比较了消除趋势法和潜在产出法的基础上,估算出我国改革开放以来的周期性赤字和结构性赤字,并依据估算结果对改革开放以来我国财政政策自动稳定功能和财政态势作简要分析。分析表明:(1)我国财政政策的自动稳定功能较弱,现实财政赤字变化主要取决于结构性赤字变化;(2)改革开放以来,我国财政态势经历了三个阶段,即1979—1981年的强紧缩阶段、1982—1997年的弱扩张阶段和1998年以来的强扩张阶段,但最近三年的积极财政政策的扩张力度已有所减弱。
Based on the analysis of the erasing trend law and the potential output law, this paper estimates the periodic deficit and the structural deficit since China’s reform and opening up. Based on the estimation results, it analyzes the auto-stabilizing function and financial situation of China’s fiscal policy since the reform and opening up Briefly analyze. The analysis shows that: (1) The automatic stabilization of fiscal policy in our country is relatively weak. The actual change of the fiscal deficit mainly depends on the structural deficit change. (2) Since the reform and opening up, China’s financial situation has gone through three stages, namely, 1979-1981 The period of intense austerity, the period of weak expansion from 1982 to 1997, and the period of strong expansion since 1998, the expansion of proactive fiscal policy in the last three years has weakened.