一、引言麦类赤霉病是沿江和江南麦区的主要病害之一,赤霉病大发生的年份(如1973、1975、1977年)都造成春粮大幅度减产,而轻发年(如1979、1980、1981年)往往是春粮丰产年。因此,在发病前期(3月底4月初)做出准确的赤霉病趋势预报,有助于植保部门采取决策方案:未来重病,需早作药械准备,及时分期喷药,积极防治减轻危害;未来若是病轻,应避免盲目用药,讲求经济效应,并可减少农药污染。研究表明,赤霉病发生的程度,同麦类抽穗扬花期的气象条件关系极为密 I. Introduction Scab belongs to one of the major diseases along the Yangtze River and the Jiangnan wheat region. The years (such as 1973, 1975 and 1977) of severe head blight caused a substantial decrease of spring wheat, 1979, 1980, 1981) is often the spring grain yield year. Therefore, it is of great help to the plant protection department to take a decision-making plan in the early stage of the disease (the end of March and the beginning of April) to make an accurate prediction of the trend of scab, which will lead to serious illnesses in the future. If the disease is light, should avoid blind medication, stress economic effects, and reduce pesticide contamination. Studies have shown that the degree of occurrence of scab belongs to the meteorological conditions at the heading and flowering stage of wheat