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人口城镇化是能源消费和碳排放增长最重要的驱动因素之一,也是居民电力消费增长的核心驱动因素。以往的研究仅考虑人口城镇化水平的影响,忽略了人口城镇化的异质性模式的影响,且对低层次空间单元的关注不够。文章集成浙江省2000年和2010年分县数据,将区域人口城镇化特征分解为水平、形态、结构和阶段,利用固定效应模型分析其对居民电力消费的驱动影响。结果发现:区域人口城镇化水平提高、形态紧凑化、结构本地化、发展阶段高端化、平均家庭户规模缩小、劳动参与率降低对居民电力消费有着显著的驱动影响,而户均房间数减少则有抑制作用。未来新型城镇化应规范人口城镇化水平的统计标准,提倡紧凑型人口城镇化形态,协调人口城镇化和土地城镇化,加强电力配套保障。
Population urbanization is one of the most important drivers of energy consumption and carbon emissions growth and is also a core driver of residential electricity consumption growth. Previous studies only considered the influence of population urbanization level, neglected the influence of the heterogeneous model of population urbanization, and paid insufficient attention to low-level spatial units. This paper integrates the sub-county data of Zhejiang Province in 2000 and 2010, and divides the urbanization characteristics of the population into levels, forms, structures and stages. The fixed-effects model is used to analyze the driving effect on residents’ electricity consumption. The results showed that: the regional population urbanization level increased, the form is compact, the localization of the structure, the high stage of the development stage, the average family household scale shrinks, the labor force participation rate reduces to the resident power consumption has the remarkable drive influence, Inhibit effect. In the future, new urbanization should standardize the statistical standard of population urbanization, promote the urbanization of compact population, coordinate the population urbanization and land urbanization, and strengthen the supporting power supply.