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运用非参数的曼奎斯特生产率指数法,测算了中国1995~2011年间的省级林业产业全要素生产率(TFP),结果表明:TFP呈现出持续小幅波动的增长,受林业主要政策变动的影响,各地区TFP的变化呈现出明显的区域性,但未来持续增长趋势明显;从TFP的分解来看,TFP分解指数的波动幅度大于TFP的波动幅度,技术变化(TECH)与技术效率变化(EFFCH)呈现出相反的特点,从技术效率(PECH)的分解出的纯技术效率变化趋势与技术效率变化相类似都有所提升,但是分解出的规模效率(SECH)大部分时期都是下降的;国家的政策变动对各效率指数变化的影响显著,但是对不同指数作用的时效性会有所不同。根据各地区不同的林业资源禀赋与特点,充分利用各地区呈现出的TFP增长趋势,分别采用有利于改变林业增长方式的政策变动,促进技术进步,保证林业产业的可持续发展。
Using the non-parametric Mannquist productivity index method, the total factor productivity (TFP) of the provincial forestry industry in China from 1995 to 2011 was estimated. The results show that the TFP showed a sustained small fluctuation growth, affected by the changes in major forestry policies , The regional TFP showed a clear regional change, but the trend of sustained growth in the future is obvious. From the decomposition of TFP, the fluctuation of TFP decomposition index is greater than the fluctuation of TFP, TECH and EFFCH ) Show the opposite characteristics. The trend of pure technical efficiency decomposition from technical factorization (PECH) is similar to the change of technical efficiency, but the decomposed scale efficiency (SECH) decreases most of the time. National policy changes have a significant impact on changes in efficiency indices, but the timeliness of the different indices will be different. According to the different endowments and characteristics of forestry resources in different regions, the trend of TFP growth in different regions should be fully utilized. Policy changes conducive to changing the mode of forestry growth should be adopted to promote technological progress and ensure the sustainable development of forestry industry.