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文章使用改革以来我国制造业行业面板数据以及考虑截面相关性的混合组均值(CPMG)估计方法,对我国经济短期波动是否通过全要素生产率和投资渠道对长期增长产生影响进行了实证研究,并区分改革不同阶段以及不同要素密集程度行业进行了比较。研究结果表明:在改革的前一阶段,我国制造业行业短期波动通过生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响,而对投资的影响不会显著为负;在改革的后一阶段,劳动密集型行业短期波动通过全要素生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响,对投资的影响显著为负,而资本密集型行业短期波动对全要素生产率和投资的影响都不显著。上述结论对不同的波动度量方法是稳健的。
This paper uses panel data of the manufacturing industry in our country and the method of mixed group mean (CPMG) estimation considering cross-sectional correlation since the reform, and makes an empirical study on whether China’s economic short-term fluctuations affect long-term growth through total factor productivity and investment channels, The different stages of reform and the different factors of intensive industries were compared. The results show that: in the first stage of reform, short-term fluctuations of manufacturing industry in our country have a significant positive impact on long-term growth through productivity channels, while the impact on investment will not be significantly negative; in the latter stage of reform, labor-intensive Short-term industry fluctuations have a significant positive impact on long-term growth through total factor productivity channels, with negative impact on investment, while short-term fluctuations in capital-intensive industries have insignificant impact on total factor productivity and investment. The above conclusion is robust to different volatility measures.