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本文构建了反映各区域不同产业产值变动与国家、区域自身以及其他区域碳强度动态关系的数理模型,研究我国各区域产业结构变动的全局和局部动态累积碳减排效应。实证结果表明:各区域第一产业产值增加降低碳强度的作用稍大于第三产业,而第二产业发展对GDP的贡献要小于其对CO2排放量的影响;从即期效应看,西南区域第一产业产值增加和第二产业产值减少对碳减排的促进作用较大,南部沿海第三产业产值变动碳减排效应也较大,此区域对全国碳减排目标实现区域有较大动态累积作用;京津区域为短期内产业结构变动碳减排潜力较大的区域,从累积效果看,西南区域和南部沿海区域产业结构变动的碳减排潜力较大。东部沿海区域和南部沿海区域碳排放易受其他区域产业结构调整的不利影响。
This paper constructs a mathematical model that reflects the dynamic relationship between the changes of output value of different industries in different regions and the carbon intensity of the country, region and other regions, and studies the global and local dynamic cumulative carbon emission reduction effects of the industrial structure changes in various regions in China. The empirical results show that: the increase of output value of the primary industry in all regions has a slightly greater effect on reducing carbon intensity than that of the tertiary industry while the contribution of the secondary industry to GDP is less than its impact on CO2 emissions. From the perspective of the spot effect, The increase of the output value of an industry and the decrease of the output value of the secondary industry have a great effect on the promotion of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission reduction effect on the output value of the tertiary industry in the southern coastal area is also large. This region has a large dynamic accumulation of the target area for carbon emission reduction in the whole country In the short term, Beijing-Tianjin region is a region with a large potential for carbon emission reduction in the short-term changes in industrial structure. From the cumulative effect, changes in industrial structure in the southwestern region and the southern coastal region have greater potential for reducing carbon emissions. Carbon emissions in the eastern and southern coastal areas are vulnerable to the industrial restructuring in other regions.