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本文提出一个将美国实际国防预算自1989年起逐年递减1％至1995年的设想,并通过模型预测其宏观经济影响,得出这一设想可使美国联邦财政赤字和国际收支经常帐户逆差都大大减少,使当前困扰美国经济的两大宏观问题得到缓解。目前,布什总统己上任半年多,裁减军费已在1988/89财政年度预算中得到反映,而且表示今后还要继续削减军费。但是这一预测能否实现,还要看其他工业发达国家特别是顺差国在宏观经济政策上,能否与美国配合。我们模型所预测的结果,仅供研究美国经济的同仁参考。
In this paper, we propose a scenario that reduces the actual defense budget in the United States by 1% annually from 1989 to 1995 and predicts its macroeconomic impact through the model. This concept leads to the assumption that both the federal budget deficit and the balance of payments current account deficit Have been greatly reduced, and the two major macroeconomic problems currently plaguing the U.S. economy have been eased. At present, President Bush has been in office for more than six months. The military spending reduction has been reflected in the 1988/89 financial year’s budget and he said he will continue to cut military spending in the future. However, whether this prediction can be realized depends on whether the other industrialized countries, especially the surplus countries, can cooperate with the United States in their macroeconomic policies. The results predicted by our model are for reference only to colleagues who study the US economy.