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针对目前健康状态评估准确度不高、客观性不强的问题,引入评估指标的不确定性和重要度,提出一种基于不确定性和重要度的改进DSmT(Dezert-Smarandache theory)健康状态评估方法.首先,引入指标不确定性和重要度作为加权因子,能够得到比较合理的指标权重;其次,采用模糊综合评判方法,通过构造三角形梯形隶属度函数确定各指标的广义基本信度赋值;然后,基于指标权重对广义基本信度赋值进行改进DSmT融合,得到各指标的广义基本信度赋值加权融合后的评估结果;最后,以某供电系统为例进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法能够赋予各评估指标较合理的权重,健康状态评估结果与系统实际运行状态相符.
Aiming at the problem of low accuracy and low objectivity of assessment of health status at present, this paper introduces the uncertainty and importance of evaluation index, and proposes an improved DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache theory) assessment of health status based on uncertainty and importance Method.Firstly, introducing the index uncertainty and importance as the weighting factors, we can get a more reasonable index weight.Secondly, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the generalized basic reliability assignment of each index is determined by constructing the triangular trapezoidal membership function. Then, , The modified DSmT fusion based on the index weights is adopted to improve the generalized basic reliability assignment, and the result of weighted generalized basic reliability assignment of each index is obtained. Finally, an example of a power supply system is used to verify the results. The results show that this method can give Each evaluation index is more reasonable weight, health assessment results and the actual system running status.