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为了解决在产品设计阶段对产品装配精度与装配成功率进行预测的问题,针对装配体模型,基于公差分析理论,运用VS2010与Matlab混合编程技术,开发了Creo环境下的装配成功率预测系统.该系统可以对装配体约束信息、材料特征、形状特征、精度信息(包括尺寸精度、几何精度、表面精度)等进行自动提取,基于极值法、概率法和蒙特卡罗法等对装配体进行公差分析,基于蒙特卡罗法进行装配体模型装配精度的自动计算和装配成功率预测,最后以某齿轮装配件为研究对象对系统进行了测试应用.结果表明,该系统可以便捷、准确地实现产品装配成功率的预测.“,”In order to solve the forecast problem of the product assembly accuracy and assembly success rate in the product design phase,in view of the assembly model, using the mixed programming technology of VS2010 and Matlab, based on tolerance analysis theory,the prediction system of assembly success rate is developed based on the Creo secondary development.The feature extraction of assembly constraint information, materials, shape characteristics, dimensional accuracy and geometrical accuracy, surface accuracy was completed,and then the tolerance analysis of assembly based on the extreme value method,probability method,Monte Carlo meth-od was established,achieving the assembly precision calculation and prediction of assembly success rate about the assembly model.Fi-nally taking a gear assembly as the research object,the system was tested.The results show that the system can realize product assem-bly success rate prediction conveniently and accurately.