论文部分内容阅读
《世界能源展望2007》“参考情景”预测,从目前到2030年,世界能源需求的增长将超过50%,其中中国和印度合计占增长量的45%;中印一次能源需求都将翻一番多,石油进口量之和将从2006年的540万桶/日增长到1910万桶/日。如果世界各国政府目前正在考虑的政策都能实施,如同“替代政策情景”假设的那样,与参考情景的预测值相比,全球能源需求和相关的排放量就会大幅削减,其中2030年全球石油需求将减少1400万桶/日,二氧化碳排放量将降低19%;中国的一次能源消费量将比参考情景减少15%,但2005-2030年能源需求仍将增长近90%;印度一次能源需求量将比参考情景低17%。相形之下,在“高经济增长情景”中,2030年全球一次能源需求将比参考情景中的预测值增加6%。中国和印度遇到的能源挑战也是世界面临的挑战,需要全球共同应对。提高能效的措施是在近期控制能源需求和排放增长的成本最低且最快捷的手段。
“World Energy Outlook 2007” and “Reference Scenarios” predict that from now till 2030, world energy demand growth will exceed 50%, of which China and India together will account for 45% of the growth; the primary energy demand in both China and India will turn over More than a while, the sum of oil imports will rise from 5.4 million barrels / day in 2006 to 19.1 million barrels / day. If the policies currently under consideration by governments around the world are implemented, global energy demand and related emissions will be significantly reduced compared to the reference scenario projections, as assumed in the Alternative Policy Scenario, with 2030 Global oil demand will be reduced by 14 million barrels / day, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 19%; China’s primary energy consumption will be 15% less than the reference scenario, but from 2005 to 2030, energy demand will continue to grow nearly 90%; India primary energy Demand will be 17% below the reference scenario. By contrast, in “High Growth Scenarios,” global primary energy demand in 2030 will increase by 6% over the forecast in the reference scenario. The energy challenges China and India encounter are also challenges the world faces and need a common global response. Measures to increase energy efficiency are the cheapest and fastest means to control energy demand and emissions growth in the near future.