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针对终端空域内短期天气条件变化引起的航班延误问题,首先利用雷达回波平面位置显示(PPI)和距离高度显示(RHI)对降水等级分类,通过图像识别方法对不同降水等级的云团进行轮廓提取;其次将对应时间的交通流信息与降水云团的空间范围匹配,提出了不同降水等级条件下的三维天气影响交通指数(WITI)计算方法;最后结合实际管制规则,将WITI指数与管制间隔调整和改航条件下的延误时间作指数回归分析,得到短期延误预测模型。通过算例仿真验证了该模型的拟合优度相比于线性回归模型提高了1.6%~4.3%,且估计标准误差趋近于0,说明指数回归延误预测模型更能反映天气影响下终端空域的实际延误状况。
Aiming at the problem of flight delay caused by the short-term weather conditions in the terminal airspace, the precipitation level is classified by radar echo plane position display (PPI) and distance height display (RHI) first, and the clouds of different precipitation levels are profiled by image recognition Then, the traffic flow information corresponding to the time is matched with the spatial extent of the precipitation cloud, and the three-dimensional weather impact traffic index (WITI) calculation method under different precipitation levels is proposed. Finally, combining the actual control rules, the WITI index is compared with the control interval Adjust and divert the conditions of the delay time for exponential regression analysis, the short-term delay forecast model. The simulation results show that the goodness-of-fit of the model is 1.6% -4.3% higher than that of the linear regression model, and the estimated standard error approaches 0, indicating that the exponential regression delay prediction model can better reflect the terminal airspace under the influence of the weather The actual delay situation.