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霍乱的发生与流行受降水量、气温、高程等多种气候地理环境要素的影响.本文利用最大熵生态位模型,基于地理、气候环境要素对中国霍乱弧菌的适生度进行分析,并根据适生度分布图选取合适的阈值对中国发病风险进行分区预测.结果表明,中国东南部沿海地区、中部地区及西部四川盆地的霍乱弧菌适生度相对较高,而东北和西北部地区的霍乱弧菌适生度较低,在西北部地区,新疆盆地的霍乱弧菌适生度要比周边地区略高.降水量、气温、高程是影响我国霍乱分布的3个主要环境危险要素;相对湿度、与海洋的距离和气压对霍乱分布也有一定的影响,但日照时数及河网密度对其影响不大.利用ROC曲线对预测模型进行评价,训练样本和测试数据的曲线下面积值在0.9以上,表明模型预测结果具有较高的精度.
The occurrence and prevalence of cholera are affected by many climatic and geographical factors such as precipitation, temperature and elevation.In this paper, based on the maximum entropy ecological niche model, the fitness of Vibrio cholerae in China was analyzed based on geographical and climatic environmental factors, Health distribution map Select the appropriate threshold to predict the risk of zoonosis in China.The results showed that the Vibrio cholera in the coastal areas in southeastern China, central China and the western Sichuan Basin had a relatively higher fitness, while the cholera in northeastern and northwestern regions In the northwestern part of China, the Vibrio cholerae fitness is slightly higher than that in the surrounding areas. Precipitation, temperature and elevation are the three major environmental risk factors that affect the distribution of cholera in our country. The relative humidity , And the distance and pressure of the ocean had some impact on the distribution of cholera, but sunshine duration and river network density had little effect on it.Using the ROC curve to evaluate the prediction model, the area under the curve of training samples and test data was 0.9 The above shows that the model predictions have high accuracy.