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文章基于地方政府视角下困扰当前中国经济增长的结构性现实问题,根据1993—2012年的中国省际年度数据,借鉴Bernanke等(1999)和Fernández-Villaverde(2010)的分析思路,运用动态随机一般均衡模型,实证研究了经济结构失衡1与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加之间的内在逻辑关系。研究发现:(1)伴随着经济增长,东、中、西部的社会投资占GDP的比重不断地提高,而居民消费和劳动收入占GDP的比重则呈下降趋势,这些经济结构失衡的表现与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加是共存的。(2)通过对大企业模型、中小企业模型和粘性价格模型进行的模拟比较分析发现,地方政府发展经济的目的促使其支出行为表现为有偏性,引发了政府投资较大幅度的增加;基于融资约束,中小企业的投资增幅不大,而大企业投资高涨,引致了地方经济结构失衡的加剧,而在这传导机制中政府投资的正外部性、企业融资约束和金融摩擦担当重要角色。
Based on the structural realities that plague the current economic growth in China from the perspective of the local government, based on the annual data of China’s provinces from 1993 to 2012 and the analytic thinking of Bernanke et al. (1999) and Fernández-Villaverde (2010), the paper uses dynamic random general Equilibrium model to empirically study the inherent logical relationship between the imbalance of economic structure1 and the increase of government investment caused by the bias of local government spending. The results show that: (1) With the economic growth, the proportion of social investment in GDP in the east, middle and west regions continuously increases while the proportion of household consumption and labor income in GDP shows a downward trend. The performance of these economic structural imbalances is affected by The government investment increase caused by the biased local government expenditure coexists. (2) Through the comparative analysis of large enterprise model, small and medium-sized enterprise model and sticky price model, it is found that the purpose of local government to promote economy is to make its expenditure behavior biased, which leads to a more substantial increase of government investment. Financing constraints, small and medium-sized enterprise investment growth rate is not large, and large business investment, has led to the aggravating imbalance of local economic structure, and in this conduction mechanism, the positive externalities of government investment, corporate financing constraints and financial friction play an important role.