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该文提出一种子集AR模型辨识算法.该方法采用模拟退火随机搜索算法,对模型的回归项子集进行优化辨识,克服“组合爆炸”问题,简化计算.文中还讨论了基于该算法的人口死亡率建模和预报问题.
This paper proposes a subset AR model identification algorithm. This method uses the simulated annealing random search algorithm to optimize and identify the regression item subset of the model to overcome the problem of “combinatorial explosion” and simplify the calculation. The article also discusses the problem of population mortality modeling and forecasting based on this algorithm.