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宁夏作为典型能源输出区,2010年人均碳排居中国首位,面临严峻碳减排压力。计算1985-2013年碳排总量,引入中国其它地区城市化率和宁夏电热产业区位商等对STIRPAT模型扩展,用偏最小二乘法(PLS)和Path分析法估计各驱动力直接和间接影响系数。研究结果:宁夏1985-2013年碳排量由1017.48万t增长到18314.95万t,年均增长10.48%,人均碳排量由2.45t/人增长到28.00t/人,年均增长8.76%;中国其它地区人口城市化通过人均GDP和电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业对宁夏碳排产生显著间接影响;宁夏碳排对总人口、单位GDP能耗、人均GDP、中国其它地区人口城市化率、宁夏人口城市化率和宁夏电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业区位商弹性系数分别为1.12%、-0.17%、0.25%、0.64%、0.80%和0.76%。
As a typical energy output area, Ningxia ranks first in China in per capita carbon in 2010, facing severe pressure of carbon emission reduction. Calculating the total carbon emissions from 1985 to 2013, introducing the urbanization rate in other regions of China and the quotient of Ningxia electric heating industry, etc., extended the STIRPAT model. The direct and indirect influence coefficients of each driving force were estimated by partial least squares (PLS) and Path analysis . The results show that from 1985 to 2013, the carbon emission of Ningxia increased from 10.1748 million tons to 183.1495 million tons with an average annual increase of 10.48%. The per capita carbon emission increased from 2.45t / person to 28.00t / person with an average annual increase of 8.76%. China In other areas, population urbanization has a significant indirect impact on the carbon emissions of Ningxia through GDP per capita and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water; the overall population, energy consumption per unit GDP, GDP per capita, population urbanization rate in other parts of China , Ningxia population urbanization rate and Ningxia electricity, gas and water production and supply location location business elasticity coefficient were 1.12%, -0.17%, 0.25%, 0.64%, 0.80% and 0.76% respectively.