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由中国石油和化学工业联合会最近发布的一份题为《我国天然气发展面临的不确定因素》调究研报告,2014年我国天然气表观消费量为1800亿立方米,同比增长7.4%,其中进口天然气580亿立方米,对外依存度达32.2%。根据国办印发的《能源发展战略行动计划(2014-2020年)》,到2020年,我国一次能源消费总量控制在48亿吨标准煤,天然气消费比重10%以上,相当于3600亿立方米;国产常规天然气、页岩气、煤层气总计目标为2450亿立方米。天然气对外依存度由此控制在32%以内。然而,鉴于市场存在诸多不确定因素,我国要实现天然气发展目标面临严峻挑战。
A report recently published by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation entitled “The Uncertain Factors Faced by the Development of China’s Natural Gas” adjusted the research report. In 2014, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was 180 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year. The imported natural gas is 58 billion cubic meters, and the foreign dependency is 32.2%. According to the “Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)” issued by the State Council, by 2020, the total primary energy consumption in China will be controlled at 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, and the proportion of natural gas consumption will be more than 10%, equivalent to 460 billion cubic meters. The domestically-targeted natural gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane have a total target of 245 billion cubic meters. Natural gas dependence on foreigners is therefore controlled within 32%. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties in the market, China will face severe challenges in achieving its natural gas development goals.