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本文运用Heckman模型对我国2006—2009年制造业上市公司1143个样本进行计量分析,探讨了在外部融资约束情况下,包括应收账款、存货和预付账款的供应链占资制约企业投资的两种路径及其更迭关系。研究发现:①在高现金流约束下,以应收账款为代表的外部影响路径发挥主要作用,而在中等现金流约束下,以存货积压为代表的内部影响路径占主导;②在供应链占资中,预付账款比重的提高会加剧企业现金流约束,促使影响路径由内部模式向外部模式转变;③存在供应链占资恶性循环陷阱;④信息透明度作为选择变量,可对上市公司财务信息真实性进行有效衡量。最后结合实证研究结果提出政策建议。
In this paper, the Heckman model is applied to the quantitative analysis of 1143 samples of listed companies in China’s manufacturing industry from 2006 to 2009. This paper discusses the constraints of external financing constraints, including account receivables, inventory, and prepayments in the supply chain to control investment. Two kinds of paths and their alternate relations. The study found that: 1 Under the constraint of high cash flow, the external influence path represented by accounts receivable plays a major role, while under the constraint of medium cash flow, the internal impact path represented by inventory backlog dominates; 2 in the supply chain In the capital contribution, the increase in the proportion of prepayments will intensify the cash flow constraints of the enterprise, prompting the change of the impact path from the internal mode to the external mode; 3 the existence of a vicious cycle trap in the supply chain; 4 information transparency as a selection variable, which can be used for financial information of listed companies. Truthfulness is measured effectively. Finally, the policy recommendations are put forward based on the empirical research results.