依据本文作者估计,中国适龄人口近年内将达到历史峰值,然后开始迅速减少。中国适龄劳动人口萎缩已成定局,这意味着廉价充裕的劳动力将成为历史,刘易斯拐点将到来,从而将对中国乃至世界产生重大影响。本文估算了中国劳动力、剩余劳动力的变化,分析了影响刘易斯拐点到来的一系列因素,强调人口结构将起主导作用。 According to the author's estimation, the population of the Chinese population will reach a historical peak in recent years and then begin to decrease rapidly. The shrinkage of the working-age population in China is a foregone conclusion. This means that a cheap and abundant labor force will become history. The Lewis turning point will come and will have a significant impact on China and the world at large. This article estimates the changes in China's labor force and surplus labor force, analyzes a series of factors that affect the arrival of Lewis's turning point, and emphasizes that population structure will play a leading role.