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一、引言 1985年12月16日日本气象厅预报—分析循环过程的业务半球谱模式和全球谱模式已转换为新的版本。在新的版本中作了如下的修改: (1)在p—σ转换中引入了余差方法, (2)引进虚温订正, (3)利用每天分析的海表温度代替气候月平均值, (4)更换山地资料。 这些改进导致了客观预报技巧评分的显著改善。主观的估计也指出了在半球预报中一些系统误差的减少。我们检验了每种修改对半球谱模式的8天预报的效果。检验发现,使用分析的海表温度和新的山脉资料的效果是比较小的。因此,我们注意到余差的p—σ转换和虚温订正的作用。
I. INTRODUCTION The business hemisphere spectrum model and the global spectrum model of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecasting-analyzing cycle process were translated into a new version on December 16, 1985. In the new version, the following modifications were made: (1) the residual error method was introduced in the p-σ conversion, (2) the introduction of the virtual temperature correction, (3) the use of daily surface sea temperature instead of the monthly average of the climate, (4) Change mountain information. These improvements led to a significant improvement in objective forecast skill scores. Subjective estimates also point to some systematic errors in hemispheric forecasts. We examined the effect of each modification on the 8-day prediction of the hemisphere spectral pattern. The test found that the effect of using the analyzed sea surface temperature and the new mountain data was relatively small. Therefore, we note the effect of the p-sigma conversion and the virtual temperature correction of the residuals.