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本文用开花强度法和树冠信息段法对安徽省山斗杉木种子园结实量进行了预测研究,建立了山斗杉木种子园结实量预测等级表及以树冠信息段上的雌芽为自变量(x)的单株结实量(y)预测模型y=137.92+0.68x+2.7×10~(-3)x~2(r=0.90)和y=-154.66+2.90x(r=0.85)。研究结果表明,基于树冠上花芽的数量,可以提前10个月对杉木的结实量作出预测,即中期预测,预测精度达到了林木种子产量中期预测的要求。
In this paper, the flowering intensity method and the canopy information method were used to predict the seedling growth of the seedlings of Fusarium Singensia Franch. In Anhui Province. The prediction table of seedling yield of Fusarium sylvestris var.mongolica was established and the female buds in the canopy information section were used as independent variables (y) prediction model of y = 137.92 + 0.68x + 2.7 × 10 -3 x ~ 2 (r = 0.90) and y = -154.66 + 2.90x (r = 0.85). The results show that based on the number of flower buds in the canopy, the fir seedling yield can be predicted 10 months ahead of schedule, that is, the medium-term forecast, and the prediction accuracy meets the medium-term forecast of tree seed yield.