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【目的】分析环塔里木盆地农业气候因子的变化特征与趋势。【方法】利用1951-2005年的逐月气候资料分析。【结果】在全球变暖的大气候背景下,过去55 a中环塔里木盆地年平均气温显著升高,增温速率在0.22℃/10 a以上。各季节及生长季平均气温都有所增加,冬季最大,达到0.5℃/10 a。冬季和秋季最高温增加均较明显。冬季、年平均和春季平均最低气温增加显著。生长季的平均、最高、最低气温增温速率都不明显。对降水量的分析结果表明,春季降水量、年降水量和生长季平均降水量有明显增加趋势。【结论】通过分析该地区农业气候变化特征,以期为有效管理区域农业、水资源,改善生态系统和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。
【Objective】 The objective of this paper is to analyze the characteristics and trends of agro-climatic factors in the Central Tarim Basin. 【Method】 The monthly climatic data of 1951-2005 were used to analyze. 【Result】 Under the background of global warming climate, annual mean temperature of Central Tarim Basin increased significantly over the past 55 years, and the warming rate was above 0.22 ℃ / 10 a. The average temperature in all seasons and growing seasons increased, reaching the maximum in winter, reaching 0.5 ℃ / 10 a. The highest temperature increase in winter and autumn are more obvious. The average annual minimum temperature in winter, average and spring increased significantly. Growing season average, highest, lowest temperature warming rate is not obvious. Analysis of the precipitation shows that the spring precipitation, the annual precipitation and the growing season average rainfall have obviously increased. 【Conclusion】 By analyzing the characteristics of agricultural climate change in this area, we hope to provide a scientific basis for effectively managing regional agriculture and water resources, improving ecosystems and achieving sustainable development.