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股市在一国经济中占有极为重要的地位,股指则是衡量股市的最重要指标。历来有不少学者研究过股市的周期性,结论大多属于定性范畴,主要以涨跌为划分周期的标志,本文则试图通过对股市周期进行定量分析,Lomb-Scargle周期图法是专门用来研究时间周期的方法,最早应用与天文领域,本文通过该方法分析了我国沪深两市的股指,得出了我国股市从定量角度看并不存在明显的周期性这一结论。
Stock market occupies a very important position in the economy of a country, stock index is the most important indicator to measure the stock market. Historically, many scholars have studied the cyclicality of the stock market. Most of the conclusions belong to the qualitative category. They are mainly marked by the rise and fall of the dividing cycle. This paper attempts to quantitatively analyze the stock market cycle. The Lomb-Scargle cycle diagram method is designed to study The method of time period, the earliest application and the field of astronomy, this paper analyzes the stock index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets through this method, and concludes that there is no obvious periodicity in China’s stock market from the quantitative point of view.