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以武澄锡虞区和阳澄淀泖区为代表,研究太湖流域典型区河网极值水位的时空变化。采用改进的MK检验和均一性检验方法检测最高和最低水位的趋势,并识别突变点;应用克里金插值技术、半变异函数方法,探讨水位变化的空间特征。研究认为:时间变化上,1950年代以来研究区各站点极值水位存在一致的上升趋势,且以最低水位上升更为显著;最高、最低水位在1980年代左右普遍性地经历一次突变。另外,历年最高水位的年际变异大于最低水位。空间变化上,突变后最高与最低水位增幅较大的站点位于阳澄淀泖区,最高与最低水位变差系数的等值线梯度均增大,即空间变异加大;半变异函数分析结果表明,突变后极值水位的空间自相关性减弱,这与流域高强度的人类活动干扰有关。分析认为,研究区河网极值水位与历年降水的变化之间存在差异,而人类活动影响在水位变化过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。
Taking Wuyu tin area and Yangcheng sediment area as representatives, the spatial and temporal changes of the river network extreme value water level in the typical area of Taihu Lake Basin were studied. The improved MK test and homogeneity test were used to detect the trend of the highest and the lowest water level, and the mutation points were identified. The Kriging interpolation and semi-variogram method were used to explore the spatial characteristics of water level changes. The study shows that: in the time change, there is a consistent upward trend of the extreme water levels at all stations in the study area since the 1950s, with the lowest water level rising more prominently; and the highest and lowest water levels have undergone a general change during the 1980s. In addition, the annual variation of the highest water level over the years is greater than the lowest water level. In the spatial variation, the sites with the largest increase and the lowest water level increase sharply are located in the Yangcheng sediment area, and the contour lines of the variation coefficients of the highest and the lowest water level increase, which means the spatial variability increases. The results of the semivariogram , The spatial autocorrelation of the extreme water level after the mutation is weakened, which is related to the high intensity of human activities in the basin. The analysis shows that there is a discrepancy between the extreme river level and the change of precipitation over the years in the study area, and the influence of human activities is playing an increasingly important role in the process of water level change.