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为了把握江苏省建筑业的发展轨迹,提出了其增长预测的多元线性回归模型.选择影响江苏省建筑业增长的5个因素,即建筑业固定资产K、地区生产总值GDP、房地产增加值REAV、建筑业对外输出WS和建筑安装工程投资JA作为解释变量,使用主成分分析解决其多重共线性问题.再选定建筑业增加值lnCAV作为被解释变量,建立江苏省建筑业增长模型,并用1990 ～2008年的统计数据检验模型预测精度.预测结果表明:2009～2012年江苏建筑业增加值的平均增长率将为17.65%,同期GDP的增长率为14.16%,江苏省建筑业未来增速快于GDP增速.建筑业产值占GDP比重持续上升,其支柱地位将逐步加强.
In order to grasp the development trajectory of construction industry in Jiangsu Province, a multivariate linear regression model of its growth forecast is proposed.Considering the five factors that affect the growth of construction industry in Jiangsu Province, namely construction industry fixed assets K, GDP, real estate REAV , The external output of construction industry WS and construction and installation investment JA as explanatory variables, the use of principal component analysis to solve its multicollinearity.Selected building value added lnCAV as explained variables, the establishment of Jiangsu Province construction growth model, and 1990 ~ 2008 statistical test model prediction accuracy.Prediction results show that: from 2009 to 2012, the average growth rate of construction value of Jiangsu will be 17.65% over the same period the GDP growth rate of 14.16%, the construction industry in Jiangsu Province in the future faster growth In the GDP growth rate, the proportion of construction output value in GDP continued to rise, and its pillar position will be gradually strengthened.