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中国股市是否可以预测是一个有争议的且十分具有研究价值的课题。首先界定股市预测的概念,针对争议的焦点确定研究思路,再结合已有的研究成果,论证了中国股市价格波动不符合随机游走模型,而是有其规律可寻,我国股市现在仍然未达到弱式有效,具有一定程度的可预测性。研究结果说明了中国股市价格波动规律的存在性和中国股市的可预测性,为股票预测提供了理论支持。
Whether the Chinese stock market can be predicted is a controversial and very valuable research topic. First of all, the paper defines the concept of stock market prediction, and determines the research ideas according to the focus of the dispute. Combining with the existing research results, this paper proves that the price fluctuation of Chinese stock market does not conform to the random walk model, but has its own rules, but China’s stock market is still not reached Weakly effective, with some degree of predictability. The result of the study shows the existence of the price volatility in China’s stock market and the predictability of the Chinese stock market, which provides theoretical support for stock prediction.