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研究研制及使用初期导弹武器系统瞬时可用度的波动及最优控制问题。定义了瞬时可用度的概念和量化指标,基于分层组合思想,建立了导弹武器系统瞬时可用度评估模型。分析了波动的产生机理,构建了最小可用度振幅和最小可用度发生时间等刻画波动的函数,提出了瞬时可用度波动的分析方法,并对波动的不确定性进行了仿真分析。在此基础上,利用仿真粒子群的优化算法,对最小可用度振幅和最佳预防性维修计划进行优化,通过实例分析,验证了模型和算法的有效性。
Research on the volatility and optimal control of instantaneous availability of missile weapon system in the initial stage of development and use. The concept of instantaneous availability and quantitative indicators are defined. Based on the idea of hierarchical combination, an evaluation model of instantaneous availability of missile weapon system is established. The mechanism of the fluctuation is analyzed, and the function of the fluctuation of the minimum availability amplitude and the minimum availability time is constructed. The analysis method of the instantaneous availability fluctuation is proposed and the uncertainty of the fluctuation is simulated and analyzed. On this basis, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the minimum availability amplitude and the best preventive maintenance plan. The effectiveness of the model and the algorithm is verified through case studies.