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近十多年来,中国经济的快速发展拉动了对能源的需求,导致煤炭消费量不断上升,2013年煤炭消费量达到36.7亿吨的天量,给国内资源与环境形成了巨大的压力。自2009年以来,煤炭进口量迅猛增长,国外煤炭的供给已经成为中国能源体系中必不可少的组成部分。虽然中国经济进入周期性调整时期,能源与煤炭的需求有所下降,但从长远来看,煤炭供给的压力仍然很大。目前,中国煤炭的主要进口国,如印尼、越南等的煤炭供给均不可持续,而澳大利亚运输距离较远,运输成本较高。但是,与中国毗邻的东北亚三国:俄罗斯(远东地区)、蒙古和朝鲜均是煤炭资源密集区。该区域不仅煤炭资源储量丰富,并且距中国运距短,运输成本低,但中国从这些国家的煤炭进口量却相对很少。从经济利益和效用最大化的角度看,建立和拓展东北亚煤炭供给圈能给相关国家均带来更大的福利。本文同时提出中国能源国际战略的新思维,即在与东北亚有关国家的合作中,以煤炭开发为切入点,扩大相关产业的合作,推动产业链的延伸,促进东北亚经济一体化的形成。在推动相关经贸发展的同时,扩大政治、文化等方面的交流,增强中国的影响力、亲和力,塑造良好的国际形象。
In the past decade or so, the rapid economic development in China drove the demand for energy and led to the continuous rise in coal consumption. The amount of coal consumed in 2013 reached 3.67 billion tons a day, putting tremendous pressure on domestic resources and the environment. Since 2009, coal imports have risen sharply. The supply of foreign coal has become an integral part of China’s energy system. Although China’s economy has entered a period of cyclical readjustment, the demand for energy and coal has declined. However, in the long run, the pressure for coal supply remains high. At present, coal supply by China’s major coal importers, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, is not sustainable. However, Australia has a longer shipping distance and a higher shipping cost. However, the three Northeastern Asian countries adjacent to China: Russia (Far East), Mongolia and North Korea are all coal-resource-intensive areas. Not only is the region rich in coal reserves, but with short distances to China and low transportation costs, China imports relatively little coal from these countries. From the perspective of economic benefits and maximization of utility, establishing and expanding the coal supply circle in Northeast Asia will bring greater benefits to all the countries concerned. At the same time, this article puts forward a new thinking on China’s international energy strategy. That is, in the cooperation with related countries in Northeast Asia, starting with coal exploitation, expanding the cooperation of related industries, promoting the extension of industrial chain and promoting the formation of economic integration in Northeast Asia. While promoting the development of economic and trade ties, we should expand exchanges in political and cultural fields, enhance China’s influence and affinity, and create a good international image.