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房地产市场在我国宏观经济与居民生活的各方面都扮演着举足轻重的角色,政府对房地产市场进行的调控是国家宏观经济调控的重要一环,调控的重要手段之一便是货币政策。本文先从理论层面研究不同的货币政策对房地产价格的影响,后通过建立多元时间序列模型,基于2002年~2016年的月度数据,对数量型货币政策工具与价格型货币政策工具对房地产价格影响进行实证分析。最终通过协整分析、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果分析、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解等方法发现,在检验的样本期内,数量型货币政策工具较之价格型货币政策工具,对房地产价格的调控效果更为显著。
The real estate market plays a decisive role in all aspects of macro-economy and residential life in our country. The regulation of the real estate market by the government is an important part of the macroeconomic regulation and control of the country. One of the most important means of regulation and control is the monetary policy. Based on the monthly data from 2002 to 2016, this dissertation studies the effect of different monetary policies on real estate prices from the theoretical aspect. After establishing the multiple time series model and the monthly data from 2002 to 2016, this paper analyzes the impact of quantitative monetary policy tools and price-based monetary policy tools on real estate prices conduct empirical research. Finally, through the methods of cointegration analysis, vector error correction model, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition, it is found that in the sample period of the test, the quantitative monetary policy tools are more effective than the price-based monetary policy tools on the real estate price Regulatory effect is more significant.