两种估算近海面大气光学湍流强度方法的比较

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选取随船观测的三亚地区2016-01-06至2016-01-09连续4天的折射率结构常数C2n及温度、风速、相对湿度三种常规气象参数, 基于后向传播神经网络和逐步回归理论, 分别建立两种模型并对C2n进行了连续3天的估算。结果显示, 两种模型估算的结果在变化趋势及量级上均符合近海面光学湍流的一般特征和变化规律, 并且可以表现出C2n的基本日变化特征, 整体相关系数分别为0.8661和0.8496。选取了平均绝对误差、平均相对误差、均方根方差以及相关系数等统计量来衡量估算结果。分析表明, 两种模型均能准确地估算出近海面的C2n, 但在夜间弱湍流发生时估算值略高于测量值。为进一步提高估算的准确度, 需要改进模式在夜间的估算效果。
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