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选用山东省18个站点1961―2015年的年降水量，利用线性趋势估计、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法、Spearman秩次相关检验法对年降水序列进行了趋势性分析。结果表明，总体上山东省年降水量呈现减少的趋势，但是不同方法得到的趋势分析结果差别较大，造成这种差别的原因可能为选取站点太少且代表性差。从检验结果来看，只有定陶县通过了Kendall 的95%置信度检验，说明山东省年降水量趋势变化并不显著。应用R/S分析方法进行持续性分析，发现山东省年降水序列未来的变化趋势与现有趋势相反，未来山东省年降水量会呈现增加趋势。
The annual precipitation of 18 stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2015 was selected. The trend of annual precipitation was analyzed by linear trend estimation, moving average method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric rank correlation test and Spearman rank correlation test . The results show that, overall, the annual precipitation in Shandong Province shows a decreasing trend, but the trend analysis results obtained by different methods are quite different. The reason for this difference may be that there are too few sites and the representativeness is poor. From the test results, only Dingtao County passed the 95% confidence test of Kendall, indicating that the trend of annual precipitation in Shandong Province is not significant. Applying R / S analysis method to continuous analysis, it is found that the future trend of annual precipitation series in Shandong Province is contrary to the existing trend, and the annual precipitation in Shandong Province will show an increasing trend in the future.