今年以来,受外围需求疲软和国内需求不足的影响,中国经济增速小幅回落。在“稳增长”的压力下,宏观政策预调微调力度加大,密集出台了鼓励家电和汽车消费、加快投资步伐等政策措施,经济增速回落的状况有缓解迹象。同时,通胀呈现加速回落态势,货币政策放松可期。由于传统经济增长模式难以为继、经济运行中调结构的必然性、人口红利的逐步减弱、劳动力供给的回落等因素制约,中国经济增速中长期大幅上行空间不大,进入中速增长阶段。 Since the beginning of this year, due to the weak external demand and the lack of domestic demand, China’s economic growth has slightly dropped. Under the pressure of “steady growth”, the fine-tuning of macro policies has been intensified. Policies and measures such as encouraging household appliances and auto consumption and accelerating the pace of investment have been introduced intensively. There are signs of easing down the economic growth rate. In the meantime, inflation has accelerated its downward trend and monetary policy can be relaxed. Due to the unsustainable economic growth mode, the inevitability of structural adjustment in economic operation, the gradual demographic dividend reduction and the fall of labor supply, China’s economic growth is not much room for a long-term upward move and has entered a stage of medium-speed growth.