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巴西军政府在1964到1985年期间的经济战略,基本延续了1930年以来实现经济现代化的基本方针。21年间,它将一个落后的发展中国家推进为世界第六大经济体。但是,限于经济发展的路径依赖,巴西的工业化战略无法摆脱其经济发展所固有的弱点,因而在评价军政府时期经济战略时,首先必须把经济战略所无法改变的因素抽取出来,不是在想象的政策空间里、而在现实可能性中作出评价。
The economic strategy of the Brazilian military government during the period from 1964 to 1985 basically lasted the basic principle of economic modernization since 1930. In 21 years, it pushed a backward developing country into the sixth largest economy in the world. However, due to the path dependence of economic development, Brazil’s industrialization strategy can not get rid of the weaknesses inherent in its economic development. Therefore, when evaluating the economic strategy in the period of the military government, we must first extract the factors that the economic strategy can not be changed, not the imagined Policy space, but in the real possibility of evaluation.