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本文运用协整关系分析、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型,对进出口贸易与我国汇率之间关系进行的实证分析表明:进出口增长与汇率波动之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,出口贸易与汇率在很大程度上是互为因果的关系—出口和汇率的增长都会引起对方的下降,而且汇率的影响大于出口。从短期来看,汇率的提升会促进出口的增长。近期,汇率的升值显著促进了进口增长,但并没削弱出口,而短期波动的影响不显著。我国出口贸易的增长是由许多非汇率因素促成的,因此仅靠调整汇率解决贸易失衡问题,所起到的作用是有限的。
This paper uses the co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and error correction model, the empirical analysis of the relationship between import and export trade and China’s exchange rate shows that: there is a long-term stable equilibrium between the import and export growth and exchange rate fluctuations, the export Trade and exchange rates are, to a large extent, causal and causal with respect to each other - both exports and the rise in the exchange rate can cause each other to decline, and exchange rates have a greater impact than exports. In the short term, higher exchange rates will boost export growth. The recent appreciation of the exchange rate has significantly contributed to the growth of imports, but has not weakened exports, but the impact of short-term fluctuations is not significant. The growth of China’s export trade is driven by many non-exchange rate factors. Therefore, the effect of adjusting the exchange rate to solve trade imbalances is limited.