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本文应用灰色控制系统GM(I,1)模型,给出了一种预测任一时期观测数列未来某一时间段所运行的轨迹数列以及此数列动态变化区间的新方法.用此方法处理山西部分资料结果表明:1979年6月19日介休5.2(M_s)地震前后,太原连通管有异常显示,地电没有反应;1976年7月28日唐山7.8(M_s)地震前太原地电有异常显示,水管无异常;夏县短水准资料处理的结果表明,预测结果与实际结果相符;用此模型对1936年8、9月份的资料进行异常识别,大多没有异常显示.
In this paper, we use the GM (I, 1) model of gray control system to give a new method to predict the trajectory series and the dynamic change interval of the series in a certain period in the future. The results show that the anomalies of Taiyuan connecting pipe show anomalies before and after Jixiu 5.2 (M_s) earthquake on June 19, 1979, and there is no response from the geoelectric power; anomalies in Taiyuan before the Tangshan 7.8 (M_s) earthquake on July 28, 1976 , No abnormal water pipelines. The result of Xiaxian short leveling data processing shows that the prediction results are consistent with the actual results. The data of August and September of 1936 are abnormally identified by this model, and most of them are not abnormally displayed.