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本文通过厄尔尼诺现象对流域洪水的影响分析，建立了流域洪水与厄尔尼诺年相关关系模式，为厄尔尼诺年及其上一年度丰满以上流域洪水灾害性气候产生可能性的预测找到了一条新途径。
Based on the analysis of the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on watershed floods, this paper establishes a correlation model of the basin flood and El Niño years, and finds a new way for the prediction of the possibility of flooding above the plum and above basin in El Niño and the previous year.