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科技项目是一个高难度和高风险的创新过程,其风险决策与控制是整个项目管理的一项重要内容。鉴于该过程中往往缺乏准确的信息,出现较多的区间数据,利用传统的贝叶斯模型很难对其进行处理。本文运用区间数理论将传统的贝叶斯风险决策模型推广应用到了区间不确定型问题,并结合可能度理论很好地解决了科技项目的风险决策问题。通过具体的实例分析,取得了很好地效果,证实了该理论模型应用于科技项目风险决策的可行性,给相关领域的研究工作提供了参考。
Science and technology project is a difficult and high-risk innovation process, the risk decision-making and control is an important part of the project management. In view of the fact that the process often lacks accurate information and more interval data appear, it is very difficult to process it using the traditional Bayesian model. In this paper, we apply the interval number theory to extend the traditional Bayesian risk decision model to interval uncertainties, and solve the risk decision problem of science and technology projects in combination with the probability theory. Through the concrete example analysis, the good result has been achieved, which proves the feasibility of applying the theoretical model to the risk decision of science and technology projects and provides a reference for the research in related fields.