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目前,与煤炭行业紧密相关的电力、钢铁、建材和化工行业产品产量呈下降趋势,预计短期内煤炭价格将呈弱势下行趋势。受国际能源需求下降及中国出口配额政策影响,2009年中国煤炭进出口格局不会发生太大变化,进出口总额将有所下降。在国内煤炭需求下降、前两年新建产能释放及安全生产监督力度加强、关停小煤矿力度加大等因素综合影响下,预计2009年煤炭生产将小幅增长,产量在28亿吨左右,但行业利润增速将大幅放慢。
At present, the production of power, steel, building materials and chemical products closely related to the coal industry shows a downward trend. It is estimated that coal prices will show a weak downward trend in the short term. Affected by the drop in international energy demand and the export quota policy of China, the import and export of coal in China will not change much in 2009, and the total volume of import and export will decline. Under the combined impact of the declining domestic coal demand, the release of new production capacity in the first two years and the strengthening of supervision on production safety and the closure of small coal mines, the coal production is expected to increase slightly in 2009 with output of 2.8 billion tons, but the industry Profit growth will slow significantly.