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高海拔地区作为我国社会经济发展相对落后、国家重点扶持建设的区域,近年来电网投资建设规模不断加大,同时呈现出工程建设条件复杂、工程造价水平波动性大的显著特点,因此,系统深化高海拔地区电网工程建设造价分析方法研究,具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文结合数据挖掘理论构建了集成智能的高海拔地区变电工程造价分析体系,包括大样本造价水平数据挖掘、基于数据序列拆分的造价差异性影响分析、基于关联性挖掘的造价波动性分析,并提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机的造价预测模型,选取四川高海拔典型工程进行了大量的数据建模及计算分析,研究成果为系统全面挖掘高海拔地区高寒、缺氧等特定施工条件下电网工程造价波动机理及发展趋势,科学制定造价管控策略,提升特殊地区造价管理精益化水平提供了一定的方法借鉴。
As an area with relatively backward social and economic development in our country and the state’s key support for construction, high-altitude areas have seen a continual increase in the scale of investment in power grid construction in recent years. At the same time, they have shown remarkable characteristics of complex construction conditions and large fluctuations in project cost levels. Therefore, Research on the method of cost analysis of power grid construction in high altitude has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the theory of data mining, this paper constructs integrated intelligence analysis system for substation project cost in high altitude area, including large sample cost level data mining, analysis of cost differential impact based on data sequence splitting, cost volatility analysis based on association mining, And put forward the cost forecasting model based on least square support vector machine. A large number of data modeling and calculation analysis are made on typical high-altitude projects in Sichuan. The research results are as follows: Power grid project cost fluctuation mechanism and development trend, scientifically formulate cost control strategy, improve the leviation level of cost management in special areas provide a certain method of reference.