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在缺失断层资料、无法准确厘定地震区边界的情况下,本文提出了地震区划分的合理性判别原则与“最优地震区”确定方法.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了7个国外地震区强(大、巨)震孕育过程,阐述了该方法的实际操作步骤.震情分析表明:意大利中部地震区和泰缅边境地震区未来有强震发生;海地-多米尼加-波多黎各地震区未来有大震发生;巴基斯坦-阿富汗-伊朗地震区未来将发生MW7.9~8.1级地震;对涉及深源地震的堪察加地震区、南美洲西部地震区和日本地震区,分考虑和不考虑深源地震两种情况,分析了上述三个地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,给出了其未来巨震事件的四要素预测结果.研究表明:考虑深源地震与否,对于孕育周期起点与终点、膨胀点与峰值强度点标志性地震事件的选择、预测临界CBS值以及未来震情的判断都有一定影响,特别是在深源地震本身就是膨胀点或峰值强度点标志性事件的情况下其影响更加显著.因此,对深源地震成因机制的研究有待进一步深入,以期给出其是否参与孕震过程的明确依据.
In the absence of fault data and the inability to accurately determine the boundary of the seismic area, this paper proposes the principle of reasonable discrimination of seismic zones and the method of determining the “optimal seismic zone.” From the perspective of the identification of the gestation period and the identification of the main shock event, The earthquake process of strong (giant and giant) earthquakes in 7 foreign earthquake regions is analyzed and the practical operation steps of this method are expounded.Seismicity analysis shows that strong earthquakes occur in the seismological regions of central Italy and Thailand-Myanmar border in the future; Haiti-Dominica - Earthquake in Puerto Rico earthquake area will occur in the future; MW7.9 ~ 8.1 earthquakes will occur in Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iranian earthquake area in the future; for Kamchatka earthquake area involving deep source earthquake, western South America earthquake area and Japan earthquake area, With or without considering deep-seated earthquakes, we analyzed the inbreeding processes of the large (giant) earthquakes in the above-mentioned three earthquake regions and gave the prediction results of the four elements in the future earthquakes. The results show that considering the deep-seated earthquakes Whether or not, for the beginning and end of the incubation period, the selection of the landmark earthquake events such as the expansion point and the peak intensity point, the prediction of the critical CBS value and the future earthquake situation have an impact, especially in the deep source The earthquake itself is the case of the expansion point or peak intensity point landmark event of its impact is more significant. Therefore, the study of the causes of earthquakes deep mechanism needs to be further in-depth, in order to give a clear basis whether to participate in the seismogenic process.