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本文根据尘肺例本身提供的信息，应用机率窗口分析和ＧＭ（１，１）模型拟合预测相结合分析的方法，评价我区１９５８年开始建矿的甲、乙、丙三个（省属）煤矿的尘肺防制效果。由机率窗口分析结果可知甲、乙两矿综合防尘效果显著（Ｐ＜０．００１），丙矿的防尘效果较差。由所建各矿的ＧＭ（１，１）模型外推预测９２～９６年诊断病例数结果来看，各矿６２年以前（综防前）入矿者年诊断均在４例左右，较为恒定。预测综防后的年诊断病例数为甲矿２例左右，乙矿６～８例之间，丙矿１１～１６例之间，反映了各矿综合防尘效果和尘肺的流行趋势，与机率窗口分析法结果基本一致。应用机率窗口分析数学模型预测，除了可以对粉尘的防制工作效果作出正确的评价外，还可以动态地了解尘肺的流行趋势，使得评价有进一步的提高。并且，两者的计算方法均简单有效，资料容易收集，不失为一种评价尘肺防制效果的优选方法。
Based on the information provided by Pneumoconiosis itself, this paper applies the method of probability window analysis and GM (1,1) model fitting prediction to evaluate the results of the three provinces (A, B and C) Coal dust control effect of pneumoconiosis. According to the results of probability window analysis, it can be seen that the integrated dust prevention effect of A and B mine is significant (P <0.001), and that of C mine is less effective. According to the prediction of the number of cases diagnosed 92-96 years by extrapolation of the GM (1,1) model built by each mine, the annual diagnoses of miners 62 years ago (before comprehensive prevention) are all around 4 cases, which is more constant . Predict the number of annual diagnosis after the prevention of the number of cases of ore in about 2 cases, 6-8 cases of B mine, C mine 11-16 cases, reflecting the mine dust effect and pneumoconiosis trends, and the probability Window analysis results are basically the same. Applying the probability window to analyze the mathematical model predicts, in addition to making a correct assessment of the dust control effect, you can also dynamically understand the epidemic trend of pneumoconiosis, making the evaluation to be further improved. Moreover, both of the calculation methods are simple and effective, easy to collect data, after all, a method of evaluation of pneumoconiosis prevention and control of the preferred method.