一前言斜坡破坏时间的正确预测,一般是根据观测得的地表位移量,应用土的蠕变变形特性来预测。其中特别应指出的是斋藤提出的第二阶段蠕变变形判图法,第三阶段蠕变变形图解法及半对数方法,将它用于数例大型滑坡的预测,结果是成功的。它们都是根据在同样的应力状态下土的压缩蠕变试验所得的关系进行预测的。但是,斜坡是在复杂的应力状态下保持其 Foreword The correct prediction of the slope failure time is generally based on the measured surface displacement, and the creep deformation characteristics of soil are used to predict. Specifically, it should be pointed out that Saito’s second phase creep deformation mapping method, the third phase creep deformation graphical method, and the semi-logarithm method were used to predict several large-scale landslides, and the results were successful. They are all predicted based on the relationship of soil compression creep test under the same stress state. However, the slope is maintained under complex stress conditions