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为探究处于不同发展阶段地区能源消费行为的差异性,对闽台地区能源消费变化及其驱动力进行了对比研究,结论表明:①近30 a来,闽台两地能源消费总量差距呈现“扩大→缩小”特征,并于2008年福建省能源消费总量首次超过台湾,但台湾省能源效率变化呈现乘幂式增长,能源效率远高于福建省同期水平,且能源消费结构较福建省更趋多元,优质高效能源占到80%以上;②闽台两地能源消费变化主要驱动因素大致相似,但亦存在显著差异:一方面,除受与福建省相同的驱动因素影响外,台湾省能源消费变化还受第三产业结构比重、能源效率因素等影响;另一方面,R&D投入占GDP比重、人均GDP、第二产业比重等驱动因素的作用方向在闽台两地却正好相反,其中,福建能源消费受驱动因素冲击后呈现增加态势,而台湾省则反之;③除受地区源消费传统影响外,闽台地区能源消费受驱动因素的影响程度也具有差异性:福建省能源消费变化受社会机动化发展驱动影响最大,经济发展、科技水平提高次之,第二产业比重、人口总量增加影响最小;台湾省社会机动化发展的能源消费驱动影响最大,科技投入增加、能源效率提高两个驱动因素的影响次之,人口总量增加、经济发展和产业结构升级影响最小。
In order to explore the difference of energy consumption behavior in different stages of development, this paper makes a comparative study on the changes of energy consumption in Fujian and Taiwan and their driving forces. The conclusions show that: ① The total energy consumption gap between Fujian and Taiwan in the past 30 years shows a “Expanding → Reducing”, and the total energy consumption in Fujian Province surpassed that of Taiwan for the first time in 2008, but the change in energy efficiency in Taiwan showed exponential growth with energy efficiency much higher than that of Fujian Province in the same period. The energy consumption structure of Fujian Province was higher than that of Fujian Provinces are more diversified and high-quality and efficient energy sources account for more than 80%. ② The main drivers of energy consumption changes in Fujian and Taiwan are broadly similar, but there are also significant differences: On the one hand, except for the same drivers as Fujian Province, Taiwan On the other hand, the direction of the driving forces of R & D investment in GDP, GDP per capita, proportion of secondary industry, etc., is in the opposite direction between Fujian and Taiwan. On the other hand, the change of provincial energy consumption is also affected by the proportion of tertiary industry and energy efficiency. Among them, the energy consumption in Fujian Province has been increasing after the impact of the driving forces, while Taiwan Province has the opposite. In addition to the traditional influence of the regional consumption, the energy consumption in Fujian and Taiwan is driven by The degree of influence is also different: the energy consumption change in Fujian Province is most affected by the development of social mobility, economic development, science and technology level followed, the proportion of the secondary industry, the smallest increase in population; the development of social mobility in Taiwan Driven by energy consumption, the impact of the two drivers is the highest, with the increase of investment in science and technology and the improvement of energy efficiency, followed by the increase of the total population, with the least impact of economic development and upgrading of the industrial structure.