论文部分内容阅读
本文分析了产生地震危险的随机性与地震烈度本身的模糊性,从而获得将地震灾害予测作为模糊随机事件的处理方法。以模糊概率子集表示予测的结果,它全面的估计了地震发生后可能出现的震害评定,为工程抗震设防的决策提供了科学依据。其次,基于地震烈度的模糊性,定义了模糊烈度和清晰烈度。从基于清晰烈度的通常可靠度的概念和计算方法中,引伸出了基于模糊烈度的模糊可靠度的概念和计算方法。它不仅考虑了地震动效应和结构抗力的随机性,而且顾及地震烈度、场地分类等的模糊性,提出了以模糊概率表示的地震工程可靠度。最后,在分析了影响地震工程可靠度诸多因素基础上建议了对地震工程可靠度模糊综合评判的方法。
In this paper, the randomness of the seismic hazard and the ambiguity of the seismic intensity itself are analyzed, and the prediction method of the seismic disaster prediction as a fuzzy random event is obtained. The prediction results are represented by a subset of fuzzy probabilities. It comprehensively evaluates the possible earthquake damage assessment after earthquake occurrence, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of earthquake fortification. Second, based on the ambiguity of the seismic intensity, the intensity of the blur and the intensity of the sharpness are defined. From the concept and calculation method of the general reliability based on the clear intensity, the concept and calculation method of the fuzzy reliability based on the fuzzy intensity are derived. It not only considers the random effects of ground motion effects and structural resistance, but also takes into account the ambiguity of seismic intensity and site classification, and proposes the reliability of seismic engineering represented by fuzzy probability. Finally, on the basis of analyzing many factors that affect the reliability of seismic engineering, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for seismic engineering reliability is proposed.