民用航空器的故障率警告值在民用航空器可靠性维修中起着重要的作用,本文提出了一种确定民用航空器故障率警告值的时间序列数据分析方法,这一方法可以较好地处理那些故障率由于受气候、环境等影响而发生周期性变化的零部件或系统,为它们的故障率预测和可靠性维修提供一种宏观的分析方法。文中最后根据某航空公司三种机型各自的重要事件的数据统计,给出了用该方法计算得到的故障率的估计值和实际值的比较,并对下一个月的故障率的警告值进行了预测。结果显示:用该方法获得的故障率的警告值是比较合理的 The failure rate warning value of civil aircraft plays an important role in the reliability maintenance of civil aircraft. This paper presents a time series data analysis method to determine the warning value of the failure rate of civil aircraft. This method can better deal with the failure rate Parts and systems that periodically change due to the effects of climate and environment provide a macro-analysis method for their failure rate prediction and reliability maintenance. Finally, based on the data statistics of the important events of the three models of an airline, the comparison of the estimated and actual values ​​of the failure rates calculated by this method is given and the warning value of the failure rate for the next month is given Predicted. The results show that the warning rate of failure rate obtained by this method is reasonable