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以巴东县新城区历史滑坡资料为例,借鉴地震灾害相关的预测理论与方法,对该区在未来5a,10a及50a不同时段内不同规模滑坡发生的超越概率进行了定量计算与预测.结果表明:巴东县新城区在未来5a,10a及50a时间段内,在不考虑人类防治工程的条件下,该区有可能发生规模在50×104 m3以上的中型滑坡、250×104 m3以上的大型滑坡、400×104 m3以上的大型滑坡的概率均达90%.研究成果为社会经济发展的防灾减灾需求灾害管理提供了科学依据,同时也为完善丰富滑坡灾害危险性评价理论的学科体系奠定了基础.
Taking the historical landslide data of Badong County as an example, this paper makes a quantitative calculation and prediction of the transcendental probability of landslides with different scales in different periods in the future in the future in the light of the prediction theory and method related to the earthquake disaster.Results The results show that under the conditions of 5a, 10a and 50a in Badong County in the future, without considering the project of human prevention and control, the medium-sized landslide with the scale above 50 × 104m3 and the above 250 × 104m3 Large-scale landslides, the probability of large landslides of 400 × 104 m3 above are all 90% .The research results provide a scientific basis for the disaster management of disaster prevention and mitigation needs of socio-economic development, but also for the improvement of the disciplinary system enriching the theory of landslide disaster risk assessment Foundation.