本文结合某型水中兵器复杂系统的研制,介绍了该系统基于贝叶斯理论的小子样可靠性评估的流程、数学模型、数值计算方法,建立了可靠性评估应用方案,有效指导了该系统的可靠性评估工作,为复杂武器系统进行小子样可靠性评估方法进行了有益的探讨。 Based on the development of a certain type of underwater weapon complex system, this paper introduces the flow, mathematical model and numerical calculation method of the small childlike reliability assessment based on Bayesian theory and establishes the application program of reliability assessment, which effectively guides the system’s Reliability assessment work, a small weapon-like reliability evaluation of complex weapon system methods were discussed.