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经历了近两年的楼市调控之后,房地产市场在2011年下半年达到顶点后开始逐步环比回落,包括房地产投资增速放缓、房企一级市场拿地热情也逐步下调。不过进入2012年5月份以来,随着经济触底预期的愈发强烈,楼市出现了成交量大幅上升的局面。从当前经济环境看,整体环境对于楼市影响负面,不过近期中央重提保增长和中央货币政策由紧转松使得市场上对楼市前景乐观预期大增。从2012年下半年来判断,房地产最坏的时候已经过去,企稳是这一阶段的特点,从国家宏观调控政策持续、决策层学习效应以及经济环境看,楼市也难现大幅反弹行情,我们预计,积极一点的话,下半年楼市或呈现小幅温和的环比反弹,部分地区可能恢复至去年高点的水平。
After nearly two years of regulation of the property market, the real estate market began to gradually decline from the peak in the second half of 2011, including a slowdown in real estate investment and a gradual reduction in the enthusiasm of the primary market for housing enterprises. However, since May 2012, as the economy is expected to become more intense, the property market has seen a sharp rise in trading volume. From the perspective of the current economic environment, the overall environment has a negative impact on the property market. However, the central government’s re-insurance and growth and the tight monetary easing in the near future have greatly boosted the market’s optimistic outlook for the property market. From the second half of 2012 to judge, the worst of the real estate has passed, the stabilization is the characteristics of this stage, from the national macro-control policies continued, decision-making learning and the economic environment, the property market is also difficult to rebound sharply, we expect In a positive note, the property market may show a slight modest rebound in the second half of the year, and some areas may resume their peak levels of last year.