论文部分内容阅读
清代粮食问题研究中,绝大多数学者所使用的粮价数据是经过农历天数加权平均处理后的公历形式。从理论上讲,这种公历化处理方式存在破坏数据原貌特征的可能,进而会影响相关数理分析。本文选用《清代道光至宣统间粮价表》中的直隶小麦价格农历形式数据,对清代中后期直隶小麦价格进行个案分析:一方面,对农历数据和公历化处理数据的统计特征进行分析;另一方面,借鉴薛华(C.H.Shiue)和凯勒(W.Keller)使用的协整分析法,对小麦市场整合情况进行分析。我们发现,使用农历天数加权平均处理后的公历化数据与原始农历数据的数理分析结果差异较大,公历化数据处理方式会造成计量结论的非系统性偏误。
In the study of food in the Qing Dynasty, the grain price data used by most scholars was the Gregorian calendar format after the weighted average of the days of the Chinese calendar. In theory, this method of processing the Gregorian calendar has the potential to damage the original features of the data, which in turn can affect the related mathematical analysis. This paper chooses the lunar form data of Zhili wheat price in the table of food price of Daoguang to Xuantong in the Qing Dynasty to make a case analysis of the price of Zhili wheat in the middle and late Qing Dynasty. On the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the data of Lunar and Gregorian customs On the other hand, we analyze the market integration of wheat based on the cointegration analysis method used by CH Shihue and W. Keller. We find that the results of the mathematical analysis of the data of the Gregorian calendar with the weighted average of the days of the Chinese calendar differ greatly from the original data of the Chinese calendar. The data processing of the Gregorian calendar will result in a non-systematic bias of the measurement conclusion.