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在现实生活中,人们在对不确定条件下进行判断或决策时往往会以偏概全、以小见大(或典型现象),但是根据理性人的假设则并非如此,根据概率论中的贝叶斯定理的大数法则,一个理性推断行为不仅会使用大样本的所有信息,也会利用先验信息。 人在不确定条件下的决策,好像取决于结果与设想的差距而不是结果本身。也就是说,人们在决策时,总是会以自己的视角或参考标准来衡量,以此来决定决策的取舍。 经济学的实验室方法就经济学家设定一种直接的责任,即把可控的过程作为生成科学数据的重要来源,而这些过程也可以由其他实验室重视。正因为实验经济学的研究过程是可控的,也就可能为这种研究提出数据采集过程的严格标准。
In real life, people tend to make a big picture (or a typical phenomenon) when judging or making decisions under uncertain conditions, but not according to the assumption of rational people. According to the theory of probability The Law of Large Numbers of the Yates theorem, a rational inference, not only uses all the information of large samples, but also a priori information. People’s decision making under uncertain conditions seems to depend on the difference between the result and the imagination, not on the result itself. In other words, people always make their decisions based on their own perspectives or reference standards when making decisions. The laboratory approach to economics sets forth a direct responsibility on economists to take controllable processes as an important source of scientific data and these processes can also be taken seriously by other laboratories. Precisely because the experimental economics research process is manageable, it is possible to propose a rigorous standard for the data collection process for such studies.